Turn your view into a position.

Say what you think will happen and what you're willing to lose. Thesis finds the contracts, sizes the trade, shows what settles how, and executes when you approve.

Orders are placed in your own venue accounts. Thesis never holds your funds.
Early accessPrediction markets · 2 venuesFirst category · US rates
› Thesis
›⌘K
Venue A 38msVenue B 61ms|Buying power $1,850.50|14:32:07 ET
“I think the Fed will cut less than markets expect by December. I'm willing to lose $500.”◐ APPROXIMATE
OUTCOMEFewer than 50 bps cut ▾THRESHOLDFF upper ≥ 3.75% ▾BYDec FOMC ▾MAX LOSS$500.00 ▾Market-implied Dec cuts: 50 bps · your view: < 50
Contracts that express this view 5 · 2 venuesSort: fit ▾   Direct / Basket
VenueContractSideBidAskSpreadDepth@askImpliedFit to view
AFed funds upper bound ≥ 3.75% after Dec FOMCYES40¢41¢1¢3,40041%◐ Approx · best
BFed funds upper bound ≥ 3.75% after Dec FOMCYES39¢43¢4¢90043%◐ Approx
BFed funds upper bound ≤ 3.50% after Dec FOMCNO58¢60¢2¢1,50040%◐ Approx · via NO
AFed holds at December meetingYES55¢57¢2¢12,10057%◔ Narrower
ANo rate cuts Jul–Dec 2026YES18¢20¢2¢2,25020%◔ Stronger
A · FF upper ≥ 3.75% Dec · YES price1W1M3MALL
41¢▼ 11¢ · 3MLast 41¢24h vol 182,400OI 1.2M
60¢50¢40¢30¢Jun 18Jul 30Sep 3TodayAug CPI 3.1%Sep FOMC −25your limit 41¢Sep 11 · CPI39¢ · vol 41k
Payoff at settlement · 1,199 YES @ 41¢
Upper bound ≥ 3.75% · YES+699.02
Upper bound < 3.75% · NO−499.98
Break-even probability41.7%
Reward : risk1.40 : 1
Resolution · Venue ASource ↗

YES if the upper bound of the fed funds target range in the December FOMC statement is ≥ 3.75%. Inter-meeting moves count. Delayed meeting: first statement after the scheduled date.

Gap. Settles on the rate level, not on market expectations. If pricing moves to fewer cuts before December, your view can be right while this contract loses.

Book · A · FF upper ≥ 3.75% DecSpread 1¢
Buy YESQty · PricePrice · QtyBuy NO
3,40041¢
5,10042¢
2,20043¢
8,00044¢
1,90045¢
6,00046¢
59¢2,800
60¢4,000
61¢6,500
62¢1,200
63¢3,300
64¢4,500
YES 40 / 41 · NO 58 / 59Last 41¢ · 14:31:52B ask 43¢
Ticket · Venue ASized to max loss
YES 41¢
NO 59¢
Type
LimitMarket
Limit price
−41¢+
Max loss ● sizing
$500.00
Contracts
1,199
Cost$491.59
Venue fee · Thesis fee$8.39 · $0.00
Max loss−$499.98
Payout if YES · net$1,199.00 · +$699.02
Fill estimate100% at 41¢ (3,400 avail)
BUY 1,199 YES @ 41¢⏎ review
Approximate match. Review shows the view-to-contract gap before anything is sent.
Positions 2Resting orders 0FillsLog
Mark: liquidation / mid   At risk −386.00   Unrealized +42.10
Thesis · contractVenueSideQtyAvgMarkValueP&LMax lossSettles
●No shutdown before Oct 1 · Govt funded through Oct 1BYES60064¢71¢$426.00+42.10−386.00Oct 1
●Aug CPI above 3% y/y · CPI YoY > 3.0% AugAYES30060¢0¢$0.00−180.00—Settled
The Thesis terminal on the Fed example. Sample data, two venues.
Why Thesis

Most trading tools start from a ticker. Thesis starts from a sentence. You describe the outcome, the deadline and what you're willing to lose. The terminal finds the contracts that express it across venues, labels how faithfully each one does, sizes the position to your max loss, and shows what settles how before anything is placed.

Fig 01
OUTCOMEFewer than 50 bps cut ▾BYDec FOMC ▾
THRESHOLDFF upper ≥ 3.75% ▾MAX LOSS$500.00 ▾
Market-implied Dec cuts 50 bps · your view < 50

Interpretation you can see

Every field the model read is shown and editable. Nothing is guessed silently.

Fig 02
● EXACT◐ APPROXIMATE◔ NARROWER○ NOT EXPRESSIBLE
You saidFewer cuts than markets price
Settles onFF upper bound ≥ 3.75% in Dec

Fit, labelled

Each contract is marked exact, approximate, narrower or not expressible, with the gap spelled out.

Fig 03
Max loss ● sizing
$500.00
Contracts
1,199
Cost + fees$499.98
Net if right+$699.02

Sized to your loss, not a quantity

Give a budget. The order is sized so cost plus fees never exceed it.

How it works

Five steps between a sentence and a settled contract.

Say itType the view the way you'd say it. The command line reads the outcome, deadline and loss budget, then asks the one question that changes the trade.
›I think the Fed will cut less than markets expect by December. I'm willing to lose $500.esc
Interpreted · edit any field with ⇥2 venues · 9 markets scanned · 140ms
OutcomeFewer Dec cuts than priced
Market now50 bps implied
DeadlineDec FOMC statement
Max loss$500.00 incl. fees
One thing to settle: which threshold is “less than markets expect”? ↑↓ ⏎
1Fewer than 50 bps in total · FF upper ≥ 3.75%Closest to the wording. Wins if the Fed cuts once or not at all.3 contracts · A, Bbest 41¢ · 3,400◐ approx
2No cut at the December meetingNarrower. Ignores what happens in October.1 contract · Abest 57¢ · 12,100◔ narrower
3No cuts at all through DecemberStrongest version. One cut loses everything.1 contract · Abest 20¢ · 2,250◔ stronger
4Not expressible with listed contracts: “relative to market pricing” itself has no market. Thesis shows the closest proxy and the gap.
⏎ construct with 1 · ⇥ edit fields · ⌘⏎ construct and reviewRecent: shutdown oct 1 · cpi aug
See the fitMost views don't map cleanly onto one contract. Thesis names the gap between what you said and what the contract settles on.
Fit to view◐ APPROXIMATE
You saidFewer Fed cuts by December than markets currently price.
Contract settles onFed funds upper bound ≥ 3.75% in the December FOMC statement.
Gap. If markets re-price to fewer cuts before December, the view is right and this contract can still lose. Thesis says so before you approve, and alerts you if it starts happening.
● EXACT◐ APPROXIMATE◔ NARROWER○ NOT EXPRESSIBLE
Size to your lossYou give a budget, not a quantity. The ticket sizes the order so cost plus fees never exceed it, and shows the fill estimate against depth.
Ticket · Venue ASized to max loss
YES 41¢
NO 59¢
Type
LimitMarket
Limit price
−41¢+
Max loss ● sizing
$500.00
Contracts
1,199
Cost$491.59
Venue fee · Thesis fee$8.39 · $0.00
Max loss−$499.98
Payout if YES · net$1,199.00 · +$699.02
Fill estimate100% at 41¢ (3,400 avail)
BUY 1,199 YES @ 41¢⏎ review
Approximate match. Review shows the view-to-contract gap before anything is sent.
Take the best priceParallel YES and NO books with depth across venues. Routing picks the venue; you approve it.
Book · A · FF upper ≥ 3.75% DecSpread 1¢
Buy YESQty · PricePrice · QtyBuy NO
3,40041¢
5,10042¢
2,20043¢
8,00044¢
1,90045¢
6,00046¢
59¢2,800
60¢4,000
61¢6,500
62¢1,200
63¢3,300
64¢4,500
YES 40 / 41 · NO 58 / 59Last 41¢ · 14:31:52B ask 43¢
Stay on trackAfter the fill, Thesis watches the thing you believe, not just the price, and alerts you when they diverge.
Is the view still on track?
EntryNow
Implied Dec cuts50 bps38 bps
Contract mark41¢46¢
Contract ↔ view—aligned
Unrealized—+59.95

Alert fires if implied cuts fall below 25 bps while the contract stays under 50¢: the case where you're right and the contract isn't.

Built for

Traders who already have views and lose time turning them into positions.

  • ●You trade rates, macro or event contracts occasionally and form your own opinions.
  • ●You've searched two venues, read settlement rules, and still weren't sure the contract said what you meant.
  • ●You think in “I'll risk $500 on this”, not in contract counts.
Not for

Anyone who wants to be told what to trade.

  • ○Thesis doesn't generate views, predict outcomes or recommend trades. You bring the conviction.
  • ○Initial coverage is one event category on two venues. If you need everything on day one, wait for us.
  • ○If a view can't be expressed with listed contracts, Thesis says so instead of forcing a proxy.
How Thesis handles your money
CustodyYour funds stay at the venue.

Thesis places orders in your own venue accounts. It never holds, moves or pools your money.

ExecutionNothing is placed until you approve it.

Limit by default, never chased above your price. Partial fills are kept and re-sized, not topped up.

AdviceNone. You bring the view.

Thesis doesn't generate views or recommend trades. It shows the contracts that express yours and how faithfully.

Where we are

Early development. Looking for design partners.

We're recruiting traders to work through real recent decisions with us, get manual position proposals for real requests, and try the first narrow prototype.

We reply personally. No waitlist emails. Or write to [YOUR EMAIL].